{"id":7537,"date":"2020-09-07T01:42:54","date_gmt":"2020-09-07T01:42:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/?p=7537"},"modified":"2020-09-07T01:43:39","modified_gmt":"2020-09-07T01:43:39","slug":"decline-of-the-west%e3%80%8a%e8%a5%bf%e6%96%b9%e7%9a%84%e6%b2%92%e8%90%bd%e3%80%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/2020\/09\/07\/decline-of-the-west%e3%80%8a%e8%a5%bf%e6%96%b9%e7%9a%84%e6%b2%92%e8%90%bd%e3%80%8b\/","title":{"rendered":"Decline of the West\u300a\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u6c92\u843d\u300b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n\n\u767e\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u90fd\u8aaa\u5de8\u9f8d\u5c07\u6703\u7526\u9192\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u5922\u5c07\u6703\u5be6\u73fe\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u7279\u8272\u99ac\u5217\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u3002\u3002\u3002\u53c8\u8aaa\u7f8e\u570b\u5df2\u7d93\u8870\u843d\u3001\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e5f\u7d42\u5c07\u88ab\u53d6\u66ff\uff1b\u751a\u81f3\u6574\u500b\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u660e\u5df2\u7d93\u75c5\u5165\u818f\u8093\u9700\u8981\u6771\u65b9\u6587\u5316\u4f86\u6551\u3002\u3002\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u73fe\u5be6\u5982\u4f55?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5176\u5be6\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d00\u521d\uff081918\u5e74\uff09Oswald Spengler\u4e0d\u662f\u5df2\u7d93\u51fa\u7248\u904e\u4e00\u672c\u201cDecline of the West \u201d\u5ba3\u4f48\u4e86\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u5316\u7684\u6c92\u843d? \u4f46\u5176\u5f8c\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u5b83\u7684\u5553\u767c\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u5b78\u5bb6Arnold Toynbee\u7814\u7a76\u3001\u5217\u8209\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u4e8c\u5341\u9918\u7a2e\u5b58\u6d3b\u6216\u5df2\u7d93\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684\u6587\u660e\u5f62\u614b\uff0c\u4e26\u5c0d\u5b83\u5011\u7684\u5404\u81ea\u767c\u5c55\u4f5c\u4e86\u7d9c\u5408\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u662f\u901a\u904e\u5c0d\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u201c\u6311\u6230\u201d\u7684\u61c9\u6230\u6240\u906d\u53d7\u7684\u8003\u9a57\u800c\u7522\u751f\u7684\uff1b\u6587\u5316\u7684\u751f\u9577\u662f\u7531\u90a3\u4e9b\u201c\u9000\u96b1\u201d\u548c\u201c\u8907\u51fa\u201d\u7684\u5c11\u6578\u5049\u5927\u4eba\u7269\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u6d3b\u52d5\u6240\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\uff1b\u6587\u5316\u7684\u8870\u843d\u4f86\u81ea\u65bc\u5c11\u6578\u5275\u9020\u8005\u55aa\u5931\u4e86\u5275\u9020\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u76f8\u61c9\u5730\u4e0d\u518d\u652f\u63f4\u8207\u6a21\u4eff\uff0c\u6574\u500b\u793e\u6703\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u61c9\u6230\u80fd\u529b\uff1b\u6587\u660e\u7684\u89e3\u9ad4\u5728\u65bc\u793e\u6703\u9ad4\u7cfb\u548c\u9748\u9b42\u7684\u5206\u88c2\u3002\u5f9e\u800c\u7834\u9664\u4e86\u897f\u65b9\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8ad6\u548c\u55ae\u4e00\u6b77\u53f2\u7dda\u6027\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u53f2\u89c0\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u73fe\u5728\u9019\u908a\u53a2\u7684\u5730\u57df\u4ecd\u7136\u5728\u57f7\u8ff7\u65bc\u81ea\u8eab\u55ae\u4e00\u7684\u6771\u65b9\/\u5929\u671d\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8ad6\u5462\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cDecline of the West\u300a\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u6c92\u843d\u300b\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oswald Spengler\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u73fe\u4ee3\u5fb7\u570b\u5fc3\u9748\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8868\u5fb5\uff0c\u628a\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5f0f\u7684\u89c0\u76f8\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u5c3c\u91c7\u5f0f\u7684\u6279\u5224\u7cbe\u795e\u7d50\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5f9e\u5b8f\u5927\u7684\u6587\u5316\u6bd4\u8f03\u5f62\u614b\u5b78\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u5c0d\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u5316\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u908f\u8f2f\u548c\u6642\u4ee3\u75c7\u72c0\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u9810\u8a00\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u5316\u7d42\u5c07\u8d70\u5411\u6c92\u843d\u3002\u81ea\u4ed6\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u672b\u4e16\u555f\u793a\u9304\u7684\u8ad6\u8abf\u5c31\u7336\u5982\u4e00\u500b\u539f\u59cb\u7684\u5275\u50b7\uff0c\u6df1\u6df1\u5730\u523b\u5370\u572820\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u897f\u65b9\u6b77\u53f2\u8def\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5176\u5148\u77e5\u822c\u7684\u8072\u97f3\u5728\u6211\u5011\u4eca\u5929\u6240\u8655\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\u4ecd\u53ef\u559a\u8d77\u4e00\u7a2e\u81ea\u7701\u7684\u6fc0\u60c5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oswald Spengler\u65bc1880\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u65bc\u5fb7\u570b\u5e03\u862d\u80af\u5821\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u6155\u5c3c\u514b\u548c\u67cf\u6797\u5b78\u7fd2\u6578\u5b78\uff0c\u54f2\u5b78\u548c\u6b77\u53f2\u3002\u7562\u696d\u5f8c\u4efb\u6559\u65bc\u4e00\u6240\u4e2d\u5b78\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\u5728\u4e2d\u5b78\u6559\u66f8\u6642\u5beb\u6210\u7684\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u95dc\u65bc\u8d6b\u62c9\u514b\u5229\u7279\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u8ad6\u6587\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u300a\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u6c92\u843d\u300b\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u5377\u51fa\u7248\u4e4b\u524d\u6c92\u6709\u767c\u8868\u904e\u4efb\u4f55\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u4ed6\u5df2\u5e74\u5c46\u4e09\u5341\u516b\u6b72\u3002 1911\u5e74\u7684\u963f\u52a0\u8fea\u723e\u5371\u6a5f(The Agadir crisis) \u6fc0\u8d77\u4ed6\u5c0d\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u660e\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u548c\u8d77\u6e90\u9032\u884c\u4e86\u8a73\u76e1\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u52d5\u529b\u30021912\u5e74\u4ed6\u78ba\u5b9a\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u5927\u6230\u7684\u7206\u767c\u548c\u9032\u5c55\u4f7f\u4ed6\u7684\u5fc3\u9748\u53d7\u5230\u9707\u61be\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4ed6\u6df1\u6df1\u5730\u601d\u8003\u73fe\u6642\u4ee3\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u5316\u8207\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u547d\u904b\u3002\u5169\u5e74\u5f8c\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u201c\u5f62\u5f0f\u8207\u73fe\u5be6\u201d\uff08&#8221;Form and Actuality&#8221; (&#8221;Gestalt und Wirklichkeit&#8221;)\uff09\u7684\u521d\u7a3f\uff0c\u4e26\u57281918\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u8a72\u5377\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u5377\uff0c\u201c\u4e16\u754c\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u201d\uff08&#8221;Welthistorische Perspektiven&#8221;\uff09\u65bc1922\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u3002\u300a\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u6c92\u843d\u300b\u65bc1906\u5e74\u9996\u6b21\u5728\u5fb7\u570b\u51fa\u7248\uff08 Vol.I\uff09\u548c1928\uff08Vol.II\uff09\u3002Spengler\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u6155\u5c3c\u514b\u7684\u5bb6\u4e2d\u5b89\u975c\u5730\u751f\u6d3b\u3002\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u5beb\u4f5c\u548c\u8ffd\u6c42\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u611b\u597d &#8211; \u6536\u96c6\u5716\u7247\u548c\u539f\u59cb\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u807d\u8c9d\u591a\u82ac\u56db\u91cd\u594f\uff0c\u95b1\u8b80\u838e\u58eb\u6bd4\u4e9e\u548c\u83ab\u91cc\u54c0\u7684\u559c\u5287\uff0c\u5076\u723e\u53bb\u54c8\u723e\u8328\u5c71\u8108\u548c\u7fa9\u5927\u5229\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u4e94\u5341\u516d\u6b72\u751f\u65e5\u524d\u4e09\u9031\u7a81\u7136\u6b7b\u65bc\u6155\u5c3c\u514b\u5fc3\u9ad2\u75c5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Spengler\u5927\u81bd\u5730\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u985e\u6b77\u53f2\u8207\u6587\u5316\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u65b0\u5b78\u8aaa\uff0c\u5373\u6bd4\u8f03\u6587\u5316\u5f62\u614b\u5b78\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u9ad4\u7cfb\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u662f\u5728\u897f\u65b9\u73fe\u4ee3\u793e\u6703\u7684\u571f\u58e4\u4e2d\u6240\u80fd\u7522\u751f\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u65b0\u54f2\u5b78\uff0c\u5f9e\u9019\u4e00\u4e16\u754c\u6b77\u53f2\u5f62\u614b\u5b78\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u51fa\u767c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u5be9\u8996\u4eba\u985e\u6b77\u53f2\u8207\u6587\u5316\u7684\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u70ba\u73fe\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u6587\u5316\u5b9a\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e26\u9810\u6e2c\u5176\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Spengler\u8a8d\u70ba\u5168\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u662f\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u53ea\u662f\u5404\u500b\u6587\u5316\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4e16\u754c\u6b77\u53f2\u53ea\u80fd\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u5404\u500b\u6587\u5316\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u3002\u6bcf\u7a2e\u6587\u5316\u90fd\u6709\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u500b\u6027\u7279\u5fb5\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u7269\u5fb5\u4f5c\u70ba\u6587\u5316\u7684\u9748\u9b42\u5f9e\u6587\u5316\u7684\u5404\u500b\u65b9\u9762\u8868\u73fe\u51fa\u4f86\u3002\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6587\u5316\u662f\u4e92\u4e0d\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u800c\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4e16\u754c\u6b77\u53f2\u5fc5\u9808\u63a1\u7528\u201c\u6587\u5316\u5f62\u614b\u5b78\u201d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5f9e\u8cab\u7a7f\u4e8e\u6bcf\u4e00\u6587\u5316\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u500b\u6027\u7279\u5fb5\u53bb\u628a\u63e1\u5176\u5f62\u614b\u3002\u628a\u63e1\u5404\u500b\u6587\u5316\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u7279\u5fb5\u4e0d\u80fd\u9760\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b78\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8981\u9760\u672c\u80fd\u548c\u76f4\u89ba\u53bb\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6bd4\u8f03\u6587\u5316\u5f62\u614b\u5b78\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u662f\u6709\u908f\u8f2f\u7684\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u7a2e\u5f62\u800c\u4e0a\u5b78\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\u8cab\u7a7f\u65bc\u4eba\u985e\u6b77\u53f2\u4e2d\u3002\u5177\u9ad4\u5730\u8aaa\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u6b77\u53f2\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u6a5f\u9ad4\uff0c\u6bcf\u7a2e\u6587\u5316\u90fd\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u751f\u547d\u9031\u671f\uff0c\u6b77\u7d93\u9752\u6625\u3001\u751f\u9577\u3001\u6210\u719f\u548c\u8870\u6557\u56db\u500b\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u5927\u81ea\u7136\u6709\u6625\u3001\u590f\u3001\u79cb\u3001\u51ac\u56db\u5b63\u8b8a\u63db\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u5404\u500b\u6587\u5316\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5c6c\u65bc\u6587\u5316\u5f62\u614b\u5b78\u4e2d\u7684\u540c\u4e00\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u540c\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5118\u7ba1Spengler\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u54f2\u5b78\u4e2d\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u8457\u201c\u897f\u65b9\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8ad6\u201d\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u78ba\u5be6\u662f\u6bd4\u8f03\u65e9\u5730\u3001\u6bd4\u8f03\u81ea\u5b78\u5730\u6279\u5224\u201c\u897f\u65b9\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8ad6\u201d\u7684\u897f\u65b9\u8457\u540d\u5b78\u8005\u3002\u4ed6\u4f8b\u8209\u4e86\u4eba\u985e\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u516b\u5927\u6587\u5316\uff0c\u5373\u53e4\u5178\u6587\u5316\u3001\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u5316\u3001\u5df4\u6bd4\u502b\u6587\u5316\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u6587\u5316\u3001\u57c3\u53ca\u6587\u5316\u3001\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u6587\u5316\u3001\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u6587\u5316\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u6587\u5316\u7b49\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u53e4\u5178\u6587\u5316\u3001\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u5316\u4e26\u4e0d\u6bd4\u5176\u5b83\u6587\u5316\u512a\u8d8a\u3002\u4ed6\u628a\u201c\u897f\u6b50\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8ad6\u201d\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u53f2\u89c0\u8996\u70ba\u201c\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u6258\u52d2\u5bc6\u9ad4\u7cfb\u201d\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u5b83\u61c9\u8a72\u88ab\u4ed6\u7684\u54e5\u767d\u5c3c\u5f0f\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u6240\u4ee3\u66ff\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u5316\uff0c\u5176\u5b83\u6587\u5316\u90fd\u5df2\u7d93\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u7121\u6b77\u53f2\u3001\u7121\u751f\u6c23\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u53ea\u5269\u4e0b\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u5316\u9084\u8655\u65bc\u6587\u660e\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u201c\u6230\u570b\u6642\u671f\u201d\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u4ed6\u4e5f\u8b1b\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u6c92\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Spengler\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u54f2\u5b78\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u986f\u8457\u7684\u7279\u9ede\uff0c\u4ed6\u7279\u5225\u5f37\u8abf\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u5bbf\u547d\uff0e\u4ed6\u660e\u78ba\u5730\u8aaa\uff0c\u300a\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u6c92\u843d\u300b\u662f\u4ed6\u5c0d\u6b77\u53f2\u548c\u6709\u95dc\u5bbf\u547d\u7684\u54f2\u5b78\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\u65b0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u7531\u9019\u7a2e\u5bbf\u547d\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u89c0\u6240\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u4ed6\u4e5f\u611f\u6b4e\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u6c92\u843d\uff0c\u537b\u9084\u662f\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e0d\u8ad6\u4eba\u985e\u662f\u591a\u9ebc\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u8b8a\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u5bbf\u547d\uff0e\u4ed6\u7684\u5e0c\u671b\u53ea\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u80fd\u6253\u52d5\u4ed6\u7684\u8b80\u8005\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u59d4\u8eab\u65bc\u6280\u8853\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6292\u60c5\u8a69\u3001\u756b\u7b46\u3001\u8a8d\u8b58\u8ad6\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u4eba\u5011\u53ea\u80fd\u9069\u61c9\u9019\u500b\u6280\u8853\u7684\u3001\u7269\u8cea\u7684\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u793e\u6703\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u300a\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u6c92\u843d\u300b\u4e00\u66f8\u554f\u4e16\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u5176\u5f71\u97ff\u662f\u5f88\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u65e2\u5c0dToynbee\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u5b78\u5bb6\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u53c8\u88ab\u7d0d\u7cb9\u653f\u6cbb\u5bb6\u548c\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u6240\u5229\u7528\uff0e\u6211\u5011\u4eca\u5929\u61c9\u8a72\u4ee5\u6279\u5224\u7684\u773c\u5149\u4f86\u8b80\u9019\u672c\u66f8\uff0c\u9032\u884c\u6279\u5224\u7684\u601d\u8003\u3002\u5efa\u8b70\u91cd\u9ede\u95b1\u8b80\u5c0e\u8a00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u3002\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"960\" src=\"http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/118980668_1384254265101402_6002144959819724833_n.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7538\" srcset=\"http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/118980668_1384254265101402_6002144959819724833_n.jpg 720w, http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/118980668_1384254265101402_6002144959819724833_n-225x300.jpg 225w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u767e\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u90fd\u8aaa\u5de8\u9f8d\u5c07\u6703\u7526\u9192\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u5922\u5c07\u6703\u5be6\u73fe\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u7279\u8272\u99ac\u5217\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u3002\u3002\u3002\u53c8\u8aaa\u7f8e\u570b\u5df2\u7d93\u8870\u843d\u3001\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u4e5f\u7d42\u5c07\u88ab\u53d6\u66ff\uff1b\u751a\u81f3\u6574\u500b\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u660e\u5df2\u7d93\u75c5\u5165\u818f\u8093\u9700\u8981\u6771\u65b9\u6587\u5316\u4f86\u6551\u3002\u3002\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u73fe\u5be6\u5982\u4f55? \u5176\u5be6\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d00\u521d\uff081918\u5e74\uff09Oswald Spengler\u4e0d\u662f\u5df2\u7d93\u51fa\u7248\u904e\u4e00\u672c\u201cDecline of the West \u201d\u5ba3\u4f48\u4e86\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u5316\u7684\u6c92\u843d? \u4f46\u5176\u5f8c\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u5b83\u7684\u5553\u767c\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u5b78\u5bb6Arnold Toynbee\u7814\u7a76\u3001\u5217\u8209\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u4e8c\u5341\u9918\u7a2e\u5b58\u6d3b\u6216\u5df2\u7d93\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684\u6587\u660e\u5f62\u614b\uff0c\u4e26\u5c0d\u5b83\u5011\u7684\u5404\u81ea\u767c\u5c55\u4f5c\u4e86\u7d9c\u5408\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u662f\u901a\u904e\u5c0d\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u201c\u6311\u6230\u201d\u7684\u61c9\u6230\u6240\u906d\u53d7\u7684\u8003\u9a57\u800c\u7522\u751f\u7684\uff1b\u6587\u5316\u7684\u751f\u9577\u662f\u7531\u90a3\u4e9b\u201c\u9000\u96b1\u201d\u548c\u201c\u8907\u51fa\u201d\u7684\u5c11\u6578\u5049\u5927\u4eba\u7269\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u6d3b\u52d5\u6240\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\uff1b\u6587\u5316\u7684\u8870\u843d\u4f86\u81ea\u65bc\u5c11\u6578\u5275\u9020\u8005\u55aa\u5931\u4e86\u5275\u9020\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u76f8\u61c9\u5730\u4e0d\u518d\u652f\u63f4\u8207\u6a21\u4eff\uff0c\u6574\u500b\u793e\u6703\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u61c9\u6230\u80fd\u529b\uff1b\u6587\u660e\u7684\u89e3\u9ad4\u5728\u65bc\u793e\u6703\u9ad4\u7cfb\u548c\u9748\u9b42\u7684\u5206\u88c2\u3002\u5f9e\u800c\u7834\u9664\u4e86\u897f\u65b9\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8ad6\u548c\u55ae\u4e00\u6b77\u53f2\u7dda\u6027\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u53f2\u89c0\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u73fe\u5728\u9019\u908a\u53a2\u7684\u5730\u57df\u4ecd\u7136\u5728\u57f7\u8ff7\u65bc\u81ea\u8eab\u55ae\u4e00\u7684\u6771\u65b9\/\u5929\u671d\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8ad6\u5462\u3002\u3002\u3002 \u201cDecline of the West\u300a\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u6c92\u843d\u300b\u201d Oswald Spengler\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u73fe\u4ee3\u5fb7\u570b\u5fc3\u9748\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8868\u5fb5\uff0c\u628a\u6b4c\u5fb7\u5f0f\u7684\u89c0\u76f8\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u5c3c\u91c7\u5f0f\u7684\u6279\u5224\u7cbe\u795e\u7d50\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5f9e\u5b8f\u5927\u7684\u6587\u5316\u6bd4\u8f03\u5f62\u614b\u5b78\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u5c0d\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u5316\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\u908f\u8f2f\u548c\u6642\u4ee3\u75c7\u72c0\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u9810\u8a00\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u5316\u7d42\u5c07\u8d70\u5411\u6c92\u843d\u3002\u81ea\u4ed6\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u672b\u4e16\u555f\u793a\u9304\u7684\u8ad6\u8abf\u5c31\u7336\u5982\u4e00\u500b\u539f\u59cb\u7684\u5275\u50b7\uff0c\u6df1\u6df1\u5730\u523b\u5370\u572820\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u897f\u65b9\u6b77\u53f2\u8def\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5176\u5148\u77e5\u822c\u7684\u8072\u97f3\u5728\u6211\u5011\u4eca\u5929\u6240\u8655\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\u4ecd\u53ef\u559a\u8d77\u4e00\u7a2e\u81ea\u7701\u7684\u6fc0\u60c5\u3002 Oswald Spengler\u65bc1880\u5e74\u51fa\u751f\u65bc\u5fb7\u570b\u5e03\u862d\u80af\u5821\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u6155\u5c3c\u514b\u548c\u67cf\u6797\u5b78\u7fd2\u6578\u5b78\uff0c\u54f2\u5b78\u548c\u6b77\u53f2\u3002\u7562\u696d\u5f8c\u4efb\u6559\u65bc\u4e00\u6240\u4e2d\u5b78\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\u5728\u4e2d\u5b78\u6559\u66f8\u6642\u5beb\u6210\u7684\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u95dc\u65bc\u8d6b\u62c9\u514b\u5229\u7279\u7684\u535a\u58eb\u8ad6\u6587\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u300a\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u6c92\u843d\u300b\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u5377\u51fa\u7248\u4e4b\u524d\u6c92\u6709\u767c\u8868\u904e\u4efb\u4f55\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u4ed6\u5df2\u5e74\u5c46\u4e09\u5341\u516b\u6b72\u3002 1911\u5e74\u7684\u963f\u52a0\u8fea\u723e\u5371\u6a5f(The Agadir crisis) \u6fc0\u8d77\u4ed6\u5c0d\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u660e\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u548c\u8d77\u6e90\u9032\u884c\u4e86\u8a73\u76e1\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u52d5\u529b\u30021912\u5e74\u4ed6\u78ba\u5b9a\u4e86\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u5927\u6230\u7684\u7206\u767c\u548c\u9032\u5c55\u4f7f\u4ed6\u7684\u5fc3\u9748\u53d7\u5230\u9707\u61be\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4ed6\u6df1\u6df1\u5730\u601d\u8003\u73fe\u6642\u4ee3\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u897f\u65b9\u6587\u5316\u8207\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u547d\u904b\u3002\u5169\u5e74\u5f8c\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86\u201c\u5f62\u5f0f\u8207\u73fe\u5be6\u201d\uff08&#8221;Form and Actuality&#8221; (&#8221;Gestalt und Wirklichkeit&#8221;)\uff09\u7684\u521d\u7a3f\uff0c\u4e26\u57281918\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u8a72\u5377\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u5377\uff0c\u201c\u4e16\u754c\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u201d\uff08&#8221;Welthistorische 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