{"id":7757,"date":"2021-08-13T09:29:27","date_gmt":"2021-08-13T09:29:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/?p=7757"},"modified":"2021-08-31T14:17:24","modified_gmt":"2021-08-31T14:17:24","slug":"ignorance-and-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/2021\/08\/13\/ignorance-and-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"ignorance and uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7121\u77e5\u5f9e\u4f55\u800c\u4f86\uff1f<br>\n\u7121\u77e5\u4f55\u6642\u5c0d\u6211\u5011\u6709\u76ca\uff0c\u4f55\u6642\u6709\u5bb3\uff1f<br>\n\u7121\u77e5\u5728\u793e\u6703\u4e92\u52d5\u3001\u7fa4\u9ad4\u95dc\u4fc2\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u6cd5\u5f8b\u88e1\u626e\u6f14\u4e86\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6a23\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff1f<br>\n\u7121\u77e5\u5728\u54ea\u4e9b\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b97\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u7f8e\u5fb7\uff1f<br>\n\u6211\u5011\u5982\u4f55\u80fd\u5920\u5229\u7528\u7121\u77e5\u4f86\u5b78\u7fd2\u3001\u767c\u73fe\u548c\u5275\u9020\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c\u7121\u77e5Ignorance\u201d \u9019\u500b\u8ab2\u984c\u5728\u54f2\u5b78\u4e36\u54f2\u5b78\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7531\u4f86\u5df2\u4e45\uff0c\u65bc\u6b64\u4e0d\u59a8\u5f9e\u793e\u6703\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u7684\u8996\u89d2\u4f86\u770b\u770b\u9019\u4e00(\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f)\u4eba\u985e\u5fc3\u667a\u7368\u6709\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u7279\u5fb5\u4e4b\u4e00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9e\u77e5\u540d\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u3001\u793e\u6703\u5b78\u5bb6Michael Smithson\uff0c\u5c31\u201c\u7121\u77e5Ignorance\u201d\u9019\u4e00\u4e3b\u984c\u9032\u884c\u4e86\u7cfb\u7d71\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u6388\u8ab2\u3002\u5728\u7531\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u548c\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5927\u5b78\u806f\u5408\u5275\u8fa6\u7684MOOC\u5e73\u81faedX( https:\/\/www.edx.org\/ )\u4e0a\uff0c\u9019\u9580\u8ab2\u7a0b\u7372\u5f97\u4e86\u4f86\u81ea\u773e\u591a\u7684\u95dc\u6ce8\u548c\u8b9a\u8b7d\u3002\u7121\u77e5\u95dc\u4e4e\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u3002\u5728\u65e5\u5e38\u7684\u5b78\u7fd2\u3001\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u5a1b\u6a02\u3001\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7121\u77e5\u540c\u6a23\u7121\u8655\u4e0d\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIgnorance and Uncertainty: Emerging Paradigms\u300a\u7121\u77e5\u548c\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u300b\u201d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6574\u9ad4\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u4f86\u5e6b\u52a9\u8b80\u8005\u7406\u89e3\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u7121\u77e5\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u8655\u7406\u7121\u77e5\u3002\u5169\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u7121\u77e5\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u5c31\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u65b0\u7684\u767c\u73fe\uff1b\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5584\u7528\u7121\u77e5\uff0c\u5728\u5145\u6eff\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u88e1\u638c\u63e1\u4e3b\u52d5\u6b0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u672c\u66f8\u6982\u8ff0\u77ad\u89e3\u6c7a\u4eba\u985e\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u884c\u70ba\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u554f\u984c\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002 \u672c\u66f8\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e86\u5728\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6216\u7121\u77e5\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u5224\u65b7\u548c\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u8da8\u52e2\u3002 \u6b64\u8655\u56de\u9867\u4e86\u8a8d\u77e5\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u3001\u793e\u6703\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u3001\u7d44\u7e54\u7814\u7a76\u3001\u793e\u6703\u5b78\u548c\u793e\u6703\u4eba\u985e\u5b78\u9818\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u671f\u5f85Dr. Smithson\u5c07\u5176\u63cf\u8ff0\u70ba\u201c\u9019\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u54e1\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5275\u9020\u6027\u5c0d\u8a71\u201d\u7684\u958b\u59cb\u3002 \u7121\u77e5\u548c\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u70ba\u7406\u89e3\u8207\u7576\u524d\u7814\u7a76\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u7bc4\u5f0f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6982\u5ff5\u6846\u67b6\u3002 \u5b83\u8a0e\u8ad6\u4e86\u5c0d\u7121\u77e5\u548c\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\u767c\u751f\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e26\u89e3\u6c7a\u4e86\u4ee5\u524d\u88ab\u5ffd\u8996\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p 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)\u4e0a\uff0c\u9019\u9580\u8ab2\u7a0b\u7372\u5f97\u4e86\u4f86\u81ea\u773e\u591a\u7684\u95dc\u6ce8\u548c\u8b9a\u8b7d\u3002\u7121\u77e5\u95dc\u4e4e\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u3002\u5728\u65e5\u5e38\u7684\u5b78\u7fd2\u3001\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u5a1b\u6a02\u3001\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7121\u77e5\u540c\u6a23\u7121\u8655\u4e0d\u5728\u3002 \u201cIgnorance and Uncertainty: Emerging Paradigms\u300a\u7121\u77e5\u548c\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u300b\u201d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6574\u9ad4\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u4f86\u5e6b\u52a9\u8b80\u8005\u7406\u89e3\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u7121\u77e5\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u8655\u7406\u7121\u77e5\u3002\u5169\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u7121\u77e5\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u5c31\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u65b0\u7684\u767c\u73fe\uff1b\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5584\u7528\u7121\u77e5\uff0c\u5728\u5145\u6eff\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u88e1\u638c\u63e1\u4e3b\u52d5\u6b0a\u3002 \u672c\u66f8\u6982\u8ff0\u77ad\u89e3\u6c7a\u4eba\u985e\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u884c\u70ba\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u554f\u984c\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002 \u672c\u66f8\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e86\u5728\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6216\u7121\u77e5\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u5224\u65b7\u548c\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u8da8\u52e2\u3002 \u6b64\u8655\u56de\u9867\u4e86\u8a8d\u77e5\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u3001\u793e\u6703\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u3001\u7d44\u7e54\u7814\u7a76\u3001\u793e\u6703\u5b78\u548c\u793e\u6703\u4eba\u985e\u5b78\u9818\u57df\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u671f\u5f85Dr. Smithson\u5c07\u5176\u63cf\u8ff0\u70ba\u201c\u9019\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u54e1\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5275\u9020\u6027\u5c0d\u8a71\u201d\u7684\u958b\u59cb\u3002 \u7121\u77e5\u548c\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u70ba\u7406\u89e3\u8207\u7576\u524d\u7814\u7a76\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u7bc4\u5f0f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6982\u5ff5\u6846\u67b6\u3002 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