{"id":7811,"date":"2021-12-13T03:48:01","date_gmt":"2021-12-13T03:48:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/?p=7811"},"modified":"2021-12-13T03:49:55","modified_gmt":"2021-12-13T03:49:55","slug":"the-precipice-existential-risk-and-the-future-of-humanity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/2021\/12\/13\/the-precipice-existential-risk-and-the-future-of-humanity\/","title":{"rendered":"The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4eba\u985e\u9019\u7269\u7a2e\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u4e26\u4e0d\u4e45\u9060\uff0c\u800c\u6df7\u6c8c\u7406\u8ad6\u96d6\u7136\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u67d0\u7a2e\u201c\u9650\u5236\u201d\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u4eba\u985e\u5c0d\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u5374\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u7269\u7a2e\u66f4\u5927\u3001\u4e14\u4e5f\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u7269\u7a2e\u7d55\u6ec5\u3002\u3002\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8a18\u5f97\u300a\u8056\u7d93\uff1a\u5275\u4e16\u7d00\u300b\u4e2d\u8aac\uff1a<br>\n\u300c1:26&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; \u3000 \u795e \u8aaa \u3001 \u6211 \u5011 \u8981 \u7167 \u8457 \u6211 \u5011 \u7684 \u5f62 \u50cf \u3001 \u6309 \u8457 \u6211 \u5011 \u7684 \u6a23 \u5f0f \u9020 \u4eba \u3001 \u4f7f \u4ed6 \u5011 \u7ba1 \u7406 \u6d77 \u88e1 \u7684 \u9b5a \u3001 \u7a7a \u4e2d \u7684 \u9ce5 \u3001 \u5730 \u4e0a \u7684 \u7272 \u755c \u3001 \u548c \u5168 \u5730 \u3001 \u4e26 \u5730 \u4e0a \u6240 \u722c \u7684 \u4e00 \u5207 \u6606 \u87f2 \u3002<br>\n1:27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; \u3000 \u795e \u5c31 \u7167 \u8457 \u81ea \u5df1 \u7684 \u5f62 \u50cf \u9020 \u4eba \u3001 \u4e43 \u662f \u7167 \u8457 \u4ed6 \u7684 \u5f62 \u50cf \u9020 \u7537 \u9020 \u5973 \u3002<br>\n1:28&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; \u3000 \u795e \u5c31 \u8cdc \u798f \u7d66 \u4ed6 \u5011 \u3001 \u53c8 \u5c0d \u4ed6 \u5011 \u8aaa \u3001 \u8981 \u751f \u990a \u773e \u591a \u3001 \u904d \u6eff \u5730 \u9762 \u3001 \u6cbb \u7406 \u9019 \u5730 \uff0e \u4e5f \u8981 \u7ba1 \u7406 \u6d77 \u88e1 \u7684 \u9b5a \u3001 \u7a7a \u4e2d \u7684 \u9ce5 \uff0e \u548c \u5730 \u4e0a \u5404 \u6a23 \u884c \u52d5 \u7684 \u6d3b \u7269 \u3002<br>\n1:29&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; \u3000 \u795e \u8aaa \u3001 \u770b \u54ea \u3001 \u6211 \u5c07 \u904d \u5730 \u4e0a \u4e00 \u5207 \u7d50 \u7a2e \u5b50 \u7684 \u83dc \u852c \u3001 \u548c \u4e00 \u5207 \u6a39 \u4e0a \u6240 \u7d50 \u6709 \u6838 \u7684 \u679c \u5b50 \u3001 \u5168 \u8cdc \u7d66 \u4f60 \u5011 \u4f5c \u98df \u7269 \u3002<br>\n1:30&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; \u81f3 \u65bc \u5730 \u4e0a \u7684 \u8d70 \u7378 \u3001 \u548c \u7a7a \u4e2d \u7684 \u98db \u9ce5 \u3001 \u4e26 \u5404 \u6a23 \u722c \u5728 \u5730 \u4e0a \u6709 \u751f \u547d \u7684 \u7269 \u3001 \u6211 \u5c07 \u9752 \u8349 \u8cdc \u7d66 \u4ed6 \u5011 \u4f5c \u98df \u7269 \uff0e \u4e8b \u5c31 \u9019 \u6a23 \u6210 \u4e86 \u3002<br>\n1:31&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; \u3000 \u795e \u770b \u8457 \u4e00 \u5207 \u6240 \u9020 \u7684 \u90fd \u751a \u597d \uff0e \u6709 \u665a \u4e0a \u3001 \u6709 \u65e9 \u6668 \u3001 \u662f \u7b2c \u516d \u65e5 \u3002\u300d\u2026\u2026\u300a\u5275\u4e16\u7d00\u300b <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u7684\u8a31\u591a\u5340\u57df \u300c\u751f\u5b58\u72c0\u6cc1\u300d 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">20\u4e16\u7d00\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u6a6b\u7a7a\u51fa\u4e16\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u767c\u5c55\u51fa\u4e86\u8db3\u4ee5\u6bc0\u6ec5\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u81ea\u8eab\u63a8\u5411\u4e00\u500b\u53f2\u7121\u524d\u4f8b\u7684\u201c\u5371\u5d16\u6642\u671f\u201d\u3002 \u4eba\u985e\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u6025\u5287\u589e\u5f37\uff0c\u800c\u76f8\u61c9\u7684\u5be6\u8e10\u667a\u6167\u537b\u6c92\u6709\u540c\u6b65\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5a01\u8105\u5230\u5168\u4eba\u985e\u751f\u5b58\u548c\u6587\u660e\u5b58\u7e8c\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u8b8a\u5f97\u8d8a\u767c\u660e\u986f\u548c\u7dca\u8feb\u3002\u6838\u6230\u722d\u3001\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u3001\u5c0f\u884c\u661f\u649e\u64ca\u7b49\u8d77\u5148\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u4eba\u985e\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u62db\u81f4\u6bc0\u6ec5\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u53ea\u662f\u500b\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u800c\u4eca\u84ec\u52c3\u8208\u8d77\u7684\u751f\u7269\u6280\u8853\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\u3001\u57fa\u56e0\u5de5\u7a0b\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u3001\u53cd\u70cf\u6258\u90a6\u793e\u6703\u7b49\u98a8\u96aa\u4e5f\u8207\u65e5\u4ff1\u589e\u3002\u9019\u7d66\u6211\u5011\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u8499\u4e0a\u96e3\u4ee5\u63ee\u6563\u7684\u9670\u5f71\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u9084\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u6a5f\u6703\u80fd\u5b89\u7136\u5ea6\u904e\u672c\u4e16\u7d00\u548c\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u5e7e\u767e\u5e74\uff1f <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u65b0\u92b3\u672a\u4f86\u5b78\u5bb6\u3001\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b78\u4eba\u985e\u672a\u4f86\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7814\u7a76\u54e1Toby Ord\u6191\u85c9\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5beb\u5c31\u4e86\u9019\u672c\u5168\u9762\u3001\u6df1\u5ea6\u63a2\u8a0e\u751f\u5b58\u6027\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u66f8\u7c4d\u201cThe Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity\u201d\u3002\u9019\u672c\u7dca\u8feb\u800c\u4ee4\u4eba\u5927\u958b\u773c\u754c\u7684\u66f8\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4fdd\u8b77\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u662f\u6211\u5011\u9019\u500b\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6311\u6230\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6a02\u89c0\u800c\u8a00\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u5207\u9806\u5229\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u6b77\u53f2\u624d\u525b\u525b\u958b\u59cb\u3002\u6211\u5011\u7684\u7269\u7a2e\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b58\u6d3b\u6578\u5341\u5104\u5e74\u2014\u2014\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u6642\u9593\u4f86\u7d50\u675f\u75be\u75c5\u3001\u8ca7\u56f0\u548c\u4e0d\u516c\u6b63\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee5\u4eca\u5929\u7121\u6cd5\u60f3\u50cf\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u84ec\u52c3\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u4f46\u9019\u500b\u5ee3\u95ca\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u6b63\u8655\u65bc\u5371\u96aa\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u9032\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u65b0\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u5728\u90a3\u88e1\u6211\u5011\u9762\u81e8\u8457\u751f\u5b58\u707d\u96e3\u2014\u2014\u90a3\u4e9b\u6211\u5011\u6c38\u9060\u4e0d\u6703\u56de\u4f86\u7684\u707d\u96e3\u3002\u5f9e\u90a3\u6642\u8d77\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5371\u96aa\u53ea\u6703\u6210\u500d\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5f9e\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u5230\u5de5\u7a0b\u75c5\u539f\u9ad4\u548c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u8fc5\u901f\u63a1\u53d6\u884c\u52d5\u5230\u9054\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u70ba\u6642\u5df2\u665a\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe Precipice\u201d\uff0c\u63a2\u7d22\u4e86\u6211\u5011\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u5c16\u7aef\u79d1\u5b78\uff0c\u4e26\u63a1\u7528\u5c16\u7aef\u7684\u79d1\u5b78\u624b\u6bb5\u5c0d\u81ea\u7136\u3001\u4eba\u70ba\u3001\u672a\u4f86\u7b49\u5404\u985e\u98a8\u96aa\u9032\u884c\u6982\u7387\u6e2c\u7b97\u548c\u6bd4\u8f03\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u4f7f\u4eba\u985e\u514d\u906d\u9019\u4e9b\u98a8\u96aa\u3001\u78ba\u4fdd\u64c1\u6709\u9577\u671f\u672a\u4f86\uff0c\u6210\u70ba\u6211\u5011\u9019\u500b\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6311\u6230\u548c\u8981\u52d9\u3002\u4ed6\u5b83\u5c07\u5b83\u5011\u7f6e\u65bc\u66f4\u5049\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u985e\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff1a\u5c55\u793a\u5982\u4f55\u7d50\u675f\u9019\u4e9b\u98a8\u96aa\u662f\u6211\u5011\u9019\u500b\u6642\u4ee3\u6700\u7dca\u8feb\u7684\u9053\u5fb7\u554f\u984c\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5b83\u6307\u660e\u4e86\u524d\u9032\u7684\u9053\u8def\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fdd\u8b77\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u548c\u6230\u7565\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f5c\u70ba\u81f4\u529b\u65bc\u5c07\u60f3\u6cd5\u4ed8\u8af8\u5be6\u8e10\u7684\u725b\u6d25\u54f2\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0cToby Ord\u66fe\u5c31\u4eba\u985e\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u6700\u5927\u554f\u984c\u5411\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u60c5\u5831\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u3001\u82f1\u570b\u9996\u76f8\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u5efa\u8b70\u3002\u5728\u201cThe Precipice\u201d\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c0d\u4eba\u985e\u6b77\u53f2\u3001\u6211\u5011\u672a\u80fd\u4fdd\u8b77\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u4ee5\u53ca\u6211\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u63a1\u53d6\u7684\u6b65\u9a5f\u9032\u884c\u4e86\u9a5a\u4eba\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u8a55\u4f30\uff0c\u4ee5\u78ba\u4fdd\u6211\u5011\u9019\u4e00\u4ee3\u4e0d\u662f\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u4ee3\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5168\u66f8\u5206\u70ba\u4e09\u500b\u90e8\u5206\u5c55\u958b\u8ad6\u8ff0\u3002<br>\n\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u4eba\u985e\u6240\u8655\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u74b0\u5883\u4ee5\u53ca\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u7533\u660e\u6211\u5011\u70ba\u4f55\u8981\u91cd\u8996\u907f\u514d\u751f\u5b58\u6027\u98a8\u96aa<br>\n\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206\u5c0d\u81ea\u7136\u98a8\u96aa\u3001\u4eba\u70ba\u98a8\u96aa\u548c\u672a\u4f86\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u7a2e\u985e\u3001\u8868\u73fe\u548c\u767c\u751f\u6982\u7387\u9032\u884c\u4e86\u5177\u9ad4\u95e1\u91cb<br>\n\u7b2c\u4e09\u90e8\u5206\u7d9c\u5408\u4ecb\u7d39\u4e86\u6574\u9ad4\u98a8\u96aa\u683c\u5c40\u3001\u4fdd\u5168\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u4e26\u5f37\u8abf\u5982\u4f55\u5b88\u8b77\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u9577\u671f\u6f5b\u529b\u3002<br>\n\u6587\u5f8c\u7684\u5927\u7bc7\u5e45\u9644\u6ce8\u5448\u73fe\u66f4\u591a\u5c08\u696d\u7d30\u7bc0\u6216\u5177\u9ad4\u8aaa\u660e\uff0c\u4ee5\u671f\u89f8\u9054\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8b80\u8005\u9700\u6c42\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u6070\u9022\u5176\u6642\u3001\u9ad8\u77bb\u9060\u77da\u7684\u66f8\u7c4d\uff0c\u5b83\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u7fa9\u4e86\u6211\u5011\u9019\u500b\u6642\u4ee3\u4ee5\u53ca\u6211\u5011\u61c9\u7576\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u626e\u6f14\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u4e26\u559a\u8d77\u6211\u5011\u5c0d\u751f\u5b58\u6027\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u91cd\u8996\uff0c\u505a\u51fa\u4fdd\u8b77\u672a\u4f86\u6240\u5fc5\u9700\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"331\" height=\"500\" src=\"http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/IMG_20211213_114551_083.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7812\" srcset=\"http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/IMG_20211213_114551_083.jpg 331w, http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/IMG_20211213_114551_083-199x300.jpg 199w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 331px) 100vw, 331px\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4eba\u985e\u9019\u7269\u7a2e\u5728\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u4e26\u4e0d\u4e45\u9060\uff0c\u800c\u6df7\u6c8c\u7406\u8ad6\u96d6\u7136\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u67d0\u7a2e\u201c\u9650\u5236\u201d\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u4eba\u985e\u5c0d\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u5374\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u7269\u7a2e\u66f4\u5927\u3001\u4e14\u4e5f\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u7269\u7a2e\u7d55\u6ec5\u3002\u3002\u3002 \u8a18\u5f97\u300a\u8056\u7d93\uff1a\u5275\u4e16\u7d00\u300b\u4e2d\u8aac\uff1a \u300c1:26&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; \u3000 \u795e \u8aaa \u3001 \u6211 \u5011 \u8981 \u7167 \u8457 \u6211 \u5011 \u7684 \u5f62 \u50cf \u3001 \u6309 \u8457 \u6211 \u5011 \u7684 \u6a23 \u5f0f \u9020 \u4eba \u3001 \u4f7f \u4ed6 \u5011 \u7ba1 \u7406 \u6d77 \u88e1 \u7684 \u9b5a \u3001 \u7a7a \u4e2d &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/2021\/12\/13\/the-precipice-existential-risk-and-the-future-of-humanity\/\">Continue reading <span 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