{"id":9203,"date":"2024-03-30T16:12:17","date_gmt":"2024-03-30T16:12:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/?p=9203"},"modified":"2024-03-30T16:12:21","modified_gmt":"2024-03-30T16:12:21","slug":"historical-dynamics-why-states-rise-and-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/philosophers.org\/ckf\/2024\/03\/30\/historical-dynamics-why-states-rise-and-fall\/","title":{"rendered":"Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u9019\u672c \u201cHistorical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall<\/a><\/em>\u201d \u5f15\u4eba\u5165\u52dd\u4e14\u96c4\u5fc3\u52c3\u52c3\u7684\u66f8\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8a31\u591a\u5617\u8a66\u4f86\u91cf\u5316\u548c\u6aa2\u9a57\u653f\u6cbb\u7d44\u7e54\u5728\u591a\u500b\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u6642\u9593\u8de8\u5ea6\u4e2d\u7684\u6210\u9577\u548c\u8870\u843d\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u3002 Peter Turchin \u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u662f\u8b49\u660e\u6b77\u53f2\u52d5\u529b\u5b78\u7684\u56b4\u683c\u5b9a\u91cf\u7406\u8ad6\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684 \u2014\u2014 \u4ed6\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u300c\u6c23\u5019\u52d5\u529b\u5b78 cliodynamics\u300d\u3002 \u9019\u6d89\u53ca\u4ee5\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u8868\u9054\u6f5b\u5728\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u4e26\u6839\u64da\u5404\u7a2e\u6b77\u53f2\u6578\u64da\u6e2c\u8a66\u9810\u6e2c\u3002 \u5118\u7ba1\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u54f2\u5b78\u6c92\u6709\u4f5c\u8005\u6240\u8a8d\u8b58\u7684\u90a3\u9ebc\u65b0\u7a4e \u2014\u2014\u5e36\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u88fd\u5ea6\u8b8a\u6578\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6b63\u8b8a\u5f97\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u6d41\u884c \u2014\u2014 \u4f46\u9019\u672c \u201cHistorical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall<\/em>\u201d \u8c50\u5bcc\u4e86\u8a72\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u61c9\u7528\uff0c\u4e26\u5145\u6eff\u4e86\u555f\u767c\u6027\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u6750\u6599\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7279\u5225\u8a73\u7d30\u95e1\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e09\u500b\u61c9\u7528\u3002 \u5f9e\u67d0\u7a2e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6700\u96c4\u5fc3\u52c3\u52c3\u7684\u662f\u95dc\u65bc\u5e1d\u570b\u8d77\u6e90\u548c\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u4ed6\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u300c\u5143\u6c11\u65cf\u524d\u6cbf\u7406\u8ad6 metaethnic frontier theory\u300d\u3002 \u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u96c6\u9ad4\u884c\u52d5\u7406\u8ad6\u3002 Peter Turchin \u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5e1d\u570b\u8a08\u756b\u6240\u5fc5\u9700\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u793e\u6703\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u800c\u7136\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7a2e\u65cf\u7fa4\u9ad4\u4e4b\u9593\u9577\u671f\u5bc6\u5207\u63a5\u89f8\u7684\u7522\u7269\u3002 \u9019\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u6bcf\u500b\u6b64\u985e\u7fa4\u9ad4\u5167\u90e8\u7684\u793e\u6703\u5718\u7d50\uff0c\u4e26\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5176\u5411\u5916\u6295\u5c04\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u8ecd\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u4ee5\u5f81\u670d\u6575\u5c0d\u7fa4\u9ad4\u7684\u52d5\u6a5f\u3002 \u986f\u7136\uff0c\u9019\u4e26\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u8457\u6240\u6709\u906d\u53d7\u6fc0\u70c8\u7a2e\u65cf\u9593\u7af6\u722d\u7684\u7fa4\u9ad4\u90fd\u6210\u70ba\u5e1d\u570b\u7684\u5efa\u8a2d\u8005\uff08\u8a31\u591a\u7fa4\u9ad4\u88ab\u9130\u5c45\u5f81\u670d\uff09\u3002 \u4f46\u9019\u78ba\u5be6\u610f\u5473\u8457\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5e1d\u570b\u5efa\u8a2d\u8005\u9700\u8981\u5728\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u7a2e\u65cf\u7af6\u722d\u4e2d\u5f62\u6210\u3002 \u8a72\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u6aa2\u9a57\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5c07\u904e\u53bb\u5169\u5343\u5e74\u7684\u6b50\u6d32\u6b77\u53f2\u5206\u70ba\u4e94\u5341\u500b\u6587\u5316\u5340\u57df\u548c\u4e8c\u5341\u500b\u4e16\u7d00\uff0c\u6839\u64da\u7a2e\u65cf\u7af6\u722d\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff08\u4ee5\u8a9e\u8a00\u3001\u5b97\u6559\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6a19\u6e96\u8861\u91cf\uff09\u5c0d\u6bcf\u500b\u5340\u57df\u9032\u884c\u5206\u985e\uff0c\u4e26\u89c0\u5bdf\u4e00\u6bb5\u4f5c\u70ba\u300c\u908a\u7586 frontier\u300d\u5730\u5340\u7684\u6642\u671f\u4e4b\u5f8c\u662f\u5426\u662f\u4e00\u6bb5\u8655\u65bc\u5e1d\u570b\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u6642\u671f\u3002 \u81f3\u5c11\u5f9e\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u4ee4\u4eba\u5370\u8c61\u6df1\u523b\u2014\u2014\u516c\u5143\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u5343\u5e74\u7684 50 \u500b\u5730\u5340\u4e2d\u6709 45 \u500b\u5730\u5340\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u5343\u5e74\u7684 50 \u500b\u5730\u5340\u4e2d\u6709 41 \u500b\u5c6c\u65bc\u300c\u908a\u7586\u5148\u5e1d\u570b frontier then empire\u300d\u6216\u300c\u7121\u908a\u7586\u5247\u7121\u5e1d\u570b no frontier then no empire\u300d\u985e\u5225\u3002 \u9019\u4e9b\u5206\u985e\u7121\u7591\u6703\u5f15\u8d77\u722d\u8b70\uff0c\u8a08\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0d\u9019\u7a2e\u660e\u986f\u4e7e\u6de8\u7684\u55ae\u8b8a\u91cf\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u8868\u793a\u61f7\u7591\uff0c\u4e26\u5c0d\u524d\u6cbf\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u5167\u751f\u6027\u611f\u5230\u597d\u5947\uff0c\u5404\u7a2e\u89c0\u9ede\u7684\u8b80\u8005\u90fd\u6703\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u54ea\u4e9b\u907a\u6f0f\u8b8a\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0d\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u679c\u8ca0\u8cac\u3002 \u4f46\u6beb\u7121\u7591\u554f\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u7406\u8ad6\u662f\u5927\u81bd\u800c\u5bcc\u6709\u60f3\u50cf\u529b\u7684\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u4ed4\u7d30\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u5728\u5c0d Peter Turchin \u7684 \u201cHistorical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall<\/em>\u201d \u7684\u8a55\u8ad6\u4e2d\uff0cJoseph Tainter<\/a> \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u9031\u671f\u7406\u8ad6\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u53d7\u5230\u6d41\u884c\u9031\u671f\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u7406\u8ad6\u6e90\u81ea\u897f\u5143\u524d\u4e8c\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u5e0c\u81d8\u6b77\u53f2\u5b78\u5bb6 Polybius \uff0c Polybius \u9810\u8a00\u4e86\u7f85\u99ac\u5e1d\u570b\u7684\u6ec5\u4ea1\u3002\u5e1d\u570b\u63d0\u524d 600 \u5e74 \uff0c\u5230\u4e8c\u5341\u4e16\u7d00\u521d\u7684 Oswald Spengler<\/a>\uff0c\u4ed6\u900f\u904e\u767c\u5c55\u968e\u6bb5\u4f86\u770b\u5f85\u4e16\u754c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e26\u9810\u6e2c\u300c\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u8870\u843d\u300d\u3002 \u5faa\u74b0\u7406\u8ad6\u5df2\u7d93\u4f11\u7720\u4e86\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\uff0cTurchin \u958b\u59cb\u4e86\u96c4\u5fc3\u52c3\u52c3\u7684\u5fa9\u8208\u4e4b\u8def\uff0c\u4ed6\u76f8\u4fe1\u6578\u5b78\u516c\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e6b\u52a9\u95e1\u660e\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u9577\u671f\u7dda\u7d22\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0cTurchin \u4e5f\u76f8\u4fe1\u4ed6\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f15\u9818\u6f6e\u6d41\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u900f\u904e\u6578\u5b78\u5efa\u6a21\u7372\u5f97\u7684\u898b\u89e3\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u773c\u4e2d\u6578\u5b78\u7070\u5875\u52a9\u9577\u548c\u6559\u5506\u7684\u8aa4\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u672c\u66f8\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206 (ch: 1 – ch: 6) \u805a\u7126\u65bc\u8fb2\u696d\u793e\u6703\u7684\u9818\u571f\u64f4\u5f35\u548c\u6536\u7e2e\uff0cTurchin \u5c07\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4efb\u52d9\u8a2d\u5b9a\u70ba \u201c\u5c07\u5404\u7a2e\u975e\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u6a5f\u5236\u8f49\u5316\u70ba\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u78ba\u5b9a\u9019\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u539f\u5247\u4e0a\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u5920\u7522\u751f\u4e8c\u968e\u52d5\u614b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u662f\uff0c\u5247\u5f9e\u4e2d\u5f97\u51fa\u53ef\u6e2c\u8a66\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u201d \u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u9818\u57df\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u63a5\u53d7\u6578\u5b78\u7406\u8ad6\u4e26\u62cb\u68c4\u300c\u53e3\u982d\u7406\u8ad6 [Randall Collins\u3001Fernand Braudel\u3001 Paul Kennedy]\u300d\u4e4b\u5f8c\u624d\u80fd\u6210\u719f\uff0c\u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916 \u201c\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u6703\u9032\u884c[\u6642\u9593\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027]\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\u201d\uff08 p 27 \uff09\u3002 \u4ed6\u5f15\u7528\u4e8614 \u4e16\u7d00\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u6b77\u53f2\u5b78\u5bb6 Ibn Khaldun \u7684\u8a71\uff0c Ibn Khaldun \u8a66\u5716\u89e3\u91cb\u6c99\u6f20\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\u70ba\u4f55\u63a8\u7ffb\u5317\u975e\u738b\u671d\uff1a\u5118\u7ba1\u738b\u671d\u5275\u59cb\u4eba\u7d71\u6cbb\u660e\u667a\u4e14\u7a05\u6536\u8f03\u8f15\uff0c\u4f46\u5f8c\u4ee3\u537b\u990a\u6210\u4e86\u5962\u4f88\u7684\u55dc\u597d\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u7a05\u6536\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u798f\u5229\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5411\u9019\u662f\u6c99\u6f20\u6e38\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6311\u6230\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5df2\u7d93\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u5f37\u6709\u529b\u7684\u5718\u7d50\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5177\u5099\u4e86\u63a1\u53d6\u96c6\u9ad4\u884c\u52d5\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002 \u5177\u6709\u5f37\u5927\u5718\u7d50\u529b\u7684\u904a\u7267\u6c11\u65cf\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e86\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5718\u7d50\u529b\u7684\u738b\u671d\uff0c\u5faa\u74b0\u91cd\u65b0\u958b\u59cb\u3002 Turchin \u5728\u4ed6\u7684 \u201c\u5143\u6c11\u65cf\u908a\u754c\u7406\u8ad6 metaethnic frontier theory\u201d \u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa (ch: 4)\uff0c\u7576\u5e1d\u570b\u908a\u754c\u6db5\u84cb\u4e3b\u8981\u6c11\u65cf\u908a\u754c\u6642\uff0c\u6c11\u65cf\u5718\u7d50\u5c31\u6703\u52a0\u5f37 \u3002 \u9019\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u64f4\u5f35\uff0c\u4f46\u4ee5\u72a7\u7272\u820a\u5e1d\u570b\u70ba\u4ee3\u50f9\u3002 Turchin \u5c07\u9019\u7a2e\u6a5f\u5236\u8f49\u5316\u70ba \u201c\u4e00\u500b\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6a21\u578b\u201d ( p 69 )\u3002 \u5118\u7ba1\u4ed6\u5f88\u5feb\u627f\u8a8d \u201c\u6211\u5011\u9700\u8981\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u6578\u64da\u4f86\u6e2c\u8a66\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u6a21\u578b\u201d\uff08 p 104 \uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u6c92\u6709\u3002 \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u9032\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u6a21\u64ec\uff0c\u5728\u8abf\u6574\u4e94\u500b\u81e8\u6642\u53c3\u6578\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c07\u5176\u8996\u70ba\u5339\u914d\u7684\uff08\u975e\u7a7a\u9593\uff09\u5be6\u969b\u7d50\u679c\u3002 \u4f46\u53c3\u6578\u6578\u91cf\u8f03\u591a\uff1b \u8db3\u5920\u5927\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6a21\u64ec\u4e0d\u5339\u914d\uff0c\u90a3\u5c07\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u9a5a\u559c\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5275\u9020\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5834\u666f\u662f\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\uff0c\u5275\u9020\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5834\u666f\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\u3002 \u76f8\u4fe1\u9019\u7a2e\u4f9d\u8cf4\u4e94\u500b\u53c3\u6578\u7684\u4efb\u610f\u503c\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u666e\u904d\u7684\u89e3\u91cb\u529b\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\u3002 Turchin \u5805\u6301\u7684\u662f\u5f8c\u4e00\u7a2e\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\u9019\u500b\u7406\u8ad6\u89e3\u91cb\u4e86\u6b50\u6d32\u653f\u6cbb\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u6a21\u5f0f\u2014\u2014\u2018\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u2019\u201d\u3002 \u7576\u652f\u6301\u7d50\u69cb\u5065\u5168\u4f46\u8a72\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u57fa\u790e\u503c\u5f97\u61f7\u7591\u6642\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u76f8\u4fe1\u7a2e\u65cf\u7fa4\u9ad4\u662f \u201c\u5178\u578b\u7684\u4eba\u985e\u7fa3\u9ad4\u201d\uff08 p 34 \uff09\u4e26\u4e14\u4ed6\u5011\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u885d\u7a81\u662f\u8207\u751f\u4ff1\u4f86\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5805\u6301\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206 (ch: 7- ch: 9) \u81f4\u529b\u65bc \u201c\u4eba\u53e3\u7d50\u69cb\u7406\u8ad6\u201d\uff0c\u8a72\u7406\u8ad6\u57fa\u65bc Jack Goldstone \u95dc\u65bc\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u9577\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002 \u8a72\u89c0\u9ede\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u898f\u6a21\u8207\u570b\u5bb6\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u6703\u7522\u751f\u64f4\u5f35\u548c\u6536\u7e2e\u7684\u5faa\u74b0\u3002 Turchin \u518d\u6b21\u5c07\u4ed6\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u503c\u5f97\u61f7\u7591\u7684\u6578\u64da\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002 \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7f85\u99ac\u9ad8\u76e7\u7684\u8003\u53e4\u907a\u5740\u6578\u91cf\u4e26\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u4eba\u53e3\u898f\u6a21\uff1a\u6b63\u5982 J. A. Tainter\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u8a55\u8ad6\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u90a3\u6a23\uff0c\u516c\u5143\u4e00\u4e16\u7d00\u5230\u4e8c\u4e16\u7d00\u907a\u5740\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u4f86\u81ea\u7f85\u99ac\u5316\u548c\u9000\u4f0d\u8ecd\u4eba\u7684\u5b9a\u5c45\uff0c\u800c\u7b2c\u56db\u4e16\u7d00\u662f\u5c0d\u7a05\u6536\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u56de\u61c9\u3002 \u5118\u7ba1\u4eba\u53e3\u91cd\u5efa\u662f\u5728\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u53e3\u666e\u67e5\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u53ef\u7528\u7684\u5c11\u6578\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u61c9\u6389\u4ee5\u8f15\u5fc3\u5730\u5c0d\u5f85\u9019\u4e9b\u985e\u578b\u7684\u4f30\u8a08\u7684\u8b8a\u7570\u6027\u3002 \u4f8b\u5982\uff0cJim Oeppen \u5728 1541 \u5e74\u81f3 1871 \u5e74\u9593\u70ba\u82f1\u683c\u862d\u88fd\u4f5c\u7684 Wrigley \u548c Schofield \u8457\u540d\u91cd\u5efa\u4f5c\u54c1\u7684 1981 \u7248\u5305\u542b\u4e00\u500b\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u7d50\u679c\u56b4\u91cd\u4f9d\u8cf4\u65bc\u6240\u7528\u7b97\u6cd5\u7684\u521d\u59cb\u5316\u3002\u4fee\u8a02\u7248\u540c\u6a23\u56b4\u91cd\u4f9d\u8cf4\u65bc\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7ad9\u4e0d\u4f4f\u8173\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\uff1a   J. E. Oeppen \u95dc\u65bc\u91cd\u5efa\u671f\u958b\u59cb\u6642\u6700\u5e74\u9577\u5e74\u9f61\u7d44\u7684\u589e\u9577\u7387\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u91cd\u5efa\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u5047\u8a2d\u7684\u5fae\u5c0f\u504f\u5dee\u975e\u5e38\u654f\u611f\u3002 \u540c\u6a23\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u53e3\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u5bb6\u73fe\u5728\u90fd\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u57fa\u65bc 20 \u4e16\u7d00 60 \u5e74\u4ee3 Richard Easterlin \u5047\u8a2d\u7684\u6a5f\u5236\u7684\u5468\u671f\u4e26\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u7c21\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0cEasterlin \u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u662f\uff0c\u5c6c\u65bc\u8f03\u5c0f\u51fa\u751f\u7fa4\u9ad4\u7684\u592b\u5a66\u5f80\u5f80\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u5c0d\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u6703\u751f\u80b2\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5b69\u5b50\uff0c\u800c\u53cd\u904e\u4f86 \uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u7af6\u722d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u767c\u73fe\u81ea\u5df1\u76f8\u5c0d\u8655\u65bc\u52a3\u52e2\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6703\u751f\u80b2\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u5b69\u5b50\u3002 \u9019\u500b\u5047\u8a2d\u6fc0\u767c\u4e86\u8a31\u591a\u7406\u8ad6\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6d3b\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u5716\u723e\u6b3d\u5f9e\u5b57\u9762\u4e0a\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u5b83\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u5340\u5206\u57fa\u65bc\u5408\u7406\u6a5f\u5236\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u65b9\u6848\u548c\u57fa\u65bc\u4e8b\u5be6\u7684\u73fe\u5be6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peter Turchin \u7528\u4e86\u6574\u500b\u7b2c\u516d\u7ae0\u4f86\u8b1b\u8ff0\u4ed6\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u7684\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u5373\u4e00\u4e9b\u793e\u6703\u904e\u7a0b\u8868\u73fe\u51fa\u908f\u8f2f\u589e\u9577\uff08\u66f8\u4e2d\u7a31\u70ba\u81ea\u50ac\u5316 autocatalytic\uff09\uff1a\u9996\u5148\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u6e1b\u901f\u5230\u6700\u7d42\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u6f38\u8fd1\u7dda\u3002 \u6240\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u96d6\u7136\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u662f\u7a7a\u9593\u7684\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u652f\u6301\u7a7a\u9593\u904e\u7a0b\u7684\u908f\u8f2f\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u5011\u662f Richard Bulliet \u95dc\u65bc\u4e2d\u4e16\u7d00\u6642\u671f\u4f0a\u6717\u5bb6\u5ead\u7688\u4f9d\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u6559\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0cRodney Stark \u4f30\u8a08\u7684\u57c3\u53ca\u57fa\u7763\u5f92\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca Stark \u4f30\u8a08\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4eba\u53e3\u7688\u4f9d\u6469\u9580\u6559\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002 Turchin \u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u4e86\u908f\u8f2f\u66f2\u7dda\u8207\u8cc7\u6599\u7684\u64ec\u5408\u512a\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u5c0d\u65bc\u6709\u4e0a\u9650\u7684\u6210\u9577\u904e\u7a0b\u4f86\u8aaa\u5f88\u5e38\u898b\u3002 \u9019\u8b93\u4eba\u60f3\u8d77 20 \u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u908f\u8f2f\u66f2\u7dda\u7684\u9ec3\u91d1\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u7576\u6642 Pearl \u71b1\u60c5\u5730\u5c07\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u51fd\u6578\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u4ed6\u80fd\u627e\u5230\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u589e\u9577\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5f9e\u8001\u9f20\u5c3e\u5df4\u7684\u9577\u5ea6\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u666e\u67e5\u6578\u64da (Sharon E. Kingsland (1988), \u201cModeling Nature: Episodes in the History of Population Ecology<\/a><\/em>\u201d)\u3002Turchin \u8072\u7a31\u4e00\u4e9b\u52dd\u5229\uff08\u201c\u7576\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u73fe\u5be6\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u8cc7\u6599\u96c6\u6642\uff0c\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u7522\u751f\u9a5a\u4eba\u6e96\u78ba\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u201d( p 117 )\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u8b80\u8005\u61c9\u8a72\u8a8d\u8b58\u5230\u9019\u4e9b\u52dd\u5229\u662f\u819a\u6dfa\u7684\uff1a\u5927\u591a\u6578\u53d7\u7d04\u675f\u7684\u6210\u9577\u904e\u7a0b\u78ba\u5be6\u985e\u4f3c\u65bc\u908f\u8f2f\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u6a23\u8aaa\u4e26\u4e0d\u80fd\u589e\u52a0\u5c0d\u6b77\u53f2\u52d5\u614b\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002 \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u7688\u4f9d\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u6559\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u548c\u7336\u592a\u5c11\u6578\u7fa4\u9ad4\u5728\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u6559\u4e0b\u7684\u7576\u524d\u548c\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u7acb\u5834\u90fd\u88ab\u5ee3\u6cdb\u8aa4\u89e3\uff1a\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u6559\u53ea\u662f\u9010\u6f38\u53d6\u5f97\u9032\u5c55\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u662f\u900f\u904e\u4f0a\u65af\u862d\u6559\u5f81\u670d\u5f8c\u6578\u5343\u5e74\u7684\u7688\u4f9d\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9084\u900f\u904e\u5a5a\u59fb\u548c\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u9577\u5dee\u7570\u3002 \u66f2\u7dda\u64ec\u5408\u5e38\u5e38\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5728\u5169\u500b\u65b9\u9762\u7522\u751f\u8aa4\u5c0e\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff1a\u5b83\u4e0d\u50c5\u4e0d\u61c9\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u8b49\u660e\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9084\u53ef\u80fd\u96b1\u85cf\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7d30\u7bc0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u4eba\u5011\u53ef\u80fd\u5e0c\u671b\u50cf\u9818\u571f\u64f4\u5f35\u9019\u6a23\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u554f\u984c\u80fd\u5920\u9f13\u52f5\u4eba\u5011\u5728\u6700\u7d42\u78ba\u5b9a\u7406\u8ad6\uff08\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u6578\u5b78\u7684\u9084\u662f\u975e\u6578\u5b78\u7684\uff09\u4e4b\u524d\u8a73\u7d30\u7814\u7a76\u6b77\u53f2\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002 \u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u6b64\uff1aTurchin \u624b\u88cf\u62ff\u8457\u4e00\u628a\u9318\u5b50\uff08\u4eba\u53e3\u5faa\u74b0\u5c31\u50cf\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\u7684 LotkaVolterra \u6355\u98df\u8005-\u7375\u7269<\/a>\u6a21\u578b\u4e00\u6a23\uff09\uff0c\u5c0d\u4ed6\u4f86\u8aaa\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u662f\u91d8\u5b50\u3002 \u6c92\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u73fe\u4ee3\u751f\u7269\u5b78\u5bb6\u76f8\u4fe1\u9019\u4e9b\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u5920\u6e96\u78ba\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u771f\u5be6\u7684\u65cf\u7fa3\uff1b \u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5be6\u5730\u89c0\u5bdf\u5f37\u8abf\u4e86\u5b83\u5011\u7684\u64ec\u5408\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6709\u591a\u5dee (E. R. Pianka (2011), Evolutionary Ecology<\/a><\/em>)\u3002\u6b77\u53f2\u4eba\u53e3\u6578\u64da\u4e5f\u4e0d\u652f\u6301\u9031\u671f\u3002 \u4eba\u53e3\u6b77\u53f2\u5b78\u5bb6 Patrice Bourdelais (Epidemics Laid Low: A History of What Happened in Rich Countries<\/em><\/a>) \u7279\u5225\u53cd\u5c0d\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u8207\u6a5f\u68b0\u5faa\u74b0\u6709\u95dc\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff1a\u4ed6\u8868\u660e\u9019\u4e9b\u6ce2\u52d5\u662f\u6c23\u5019\u3001\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u3001\u6280\u8853\u548c\u8cc7\u6e90\u7d9c\u5408\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cTurchin \u5c0d\u5b78\u8853\u7684\u7121\u610f\u8ca2\u737b\u662f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5fae\u5206\u5b78\u5c0d\u6b77\u53f2\u6709\u591a\u5408\u9069\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u554f\u984c\u3002 \u6211\u5011\u6703\u66f4\u559c\u6b61\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6f2b\u756b\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7d2e\u5be6\u7684\u300c\u53e3\u982d\u300d\u8a0e\u8ad6\u55ce\uff1f \u6a21\u64ec\u7684\u4e00\u9805\u7279\u5b9a\u7522\u51fa\u5e36\u4f86\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8b49\u64da\u50f9\u503c\uff1f \u7576\u6a21\u64ec\u8207\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u6578\u64da\u76f8\u7576\u543b\u5408\u6642\uff0c\u660e\u667a\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u53c3\u6578\u7684\u6578\u91cf\u548c\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4f7f\u5176\u6210\u70ba\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u52d5\u614b\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0d\u61c9\u8a72\u88ab\u7c21\u5316\u70ba\u9019\u7a2e\u5617\u8a66\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u6211\u5011\u627f\u8a8d \u793e\u6703\u4e8b\u52d9\u548c\u4eba\u985e\u6642\u9593\u7684\u8907\u96dc\u6027\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u6709\u70ba\u6b77\u53f2\u505a\u51fa\u8ca2\u737b\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u6f5b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u9019\u672c \u201cHistorical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall\u201d \u5f15\u4eba\u5165\u52dd\u4e14\u96c4\u5fc3\u52c3\u52c3\u7684\u66f8\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8a31\u591a\u5617\u8a66\u4f86\u91cf\u5316\u548c\u6aa2\u9a57\u653f\u6cbb\u7d44\u7e54\u5728\u591a\u500b\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u6642\u9593\u8de8\u5ea6\u4e2d\u7684\u6210\u9577\u548c\u8870\u843d\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u3002 Peter Turchin \u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u662f\u8b49\u660e\u6b77\u53f2\u52d5\u529b\u5b78\u7684\u56b4\u683c\u5b9a\u91cf\u7406\u8ad6\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684 \u2014\u2014 \u4ed6\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u300c\u6c23\u5019\u52d5\u529b\u5b78 cliodynamics\u300d\u3002 \u9019\u6d89\u53ca\u4ee5\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u8868\u9054\u6f5b\u5728\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u4e26\u6839\u64da\u5404\u7a2e\u6b77\u53f2\u6578\u64da\u6e2c\u8a66\u9810\u6e2c\u3002 \u5118\u7ba1\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u54f2\u5b78\u6c92\u6709\u4f5c\u8005\u6240\u8a8d\u8b58\u7684\u90a3\u9ebc\u65b0\u7a4e \u2014\u2014\u5e36\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u88fd\u5ea6\u8b8a\u6578\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6b63\u8b8a\u5f97\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u6d41\u884c \u2014\u2014 \u4f46\u9019\u672c \u201cHistorical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall\u201d \u8c50\u5bcc\u4e86\u8a72\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u61c9\u7528\uff0c\u4e26\u5145\u6eff\u4e86\u555f\u767c\u6027\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u6750\u6599\u3002 \u7279\u5225\u8a73\u7d30\u95e1\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e09\u500b\u61c9\u7528\u3002 \u5f9e\u67d0\u7a2e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6700\u96c4\u5fc3\u52c3\u52c3\u7684\u662f\u95dc\u65bc\u5e1d\u570b\u8d77\u6e90\u548c\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u4ed6\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u300c\u5143\u6c11\u65cf\u524d\u6cbf\u7406\u8ad6 metaethnic frontier theory\u300d\u3002 \u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u96c6\u9ad4\u884c\u52d5\u7406\u8ad6\u3002 Peter Turchin \u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5e1d\u570b\u8a08\u756b\u6240\u5fc5\u9700\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u793e\u6703\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u800c\u7136\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7a2e\u65cf\u7fa4\u9ad4\u4e4b\u9593\u9577\u671f\u5bc6\u5207\u63a5\u89f8\u7684\u7522\u7269\u3002 \u9019\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u6bcf\u500b\u6b64\u985e\u7fa4\u9ad4\u5167\u90e8\u7684\u793e\u6703\u5718\u7d50\uff0c\u4e26\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5176\u5411\u5916\u6295\u5c04\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u8ecd\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u4ee5\u5f81\u670d\u6575\u5c0d\u7fa4\u9ad4\u7684\u52d5\u6a5f\u3002 \u986f\u7136\uff0c\u9019\u4e26\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u8457\u6240\u6709\u906d\u53d7\u6fc0\u70c8\u7a2e\u65cf\u9593\u7af6\u722d\u7684\u7fa4\u9ad4\u90fd\u6210\u70ba\u5e1d\u570b\u7684\u5efa\u8a2d\u8005\uff08\u8a31\u591a\u7fa4\u9ad4\u88ab\u9130\u5c45\u5f81\u670d\uff09\u3002 \u4f46\u9019\u78ba\u5be6\u610f\u5473\u8457\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5e1d\u570b\u5efa\u8a2d\u8005\u9700\u8981\u5728\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u7a2e\u65cf\u7af6\u722d\u4e2d\u5f62\u6210\u3002 … Continue reading 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