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Daily Archives: January 16, 2020
《能源神話與現實》
環保已經是現代生活不可不涉的課題,更甚地環保主義已成為一種新宗教現象。在此議題下亦往往浸雜了各種各式的似是而非的觀點,於此實有賴我們以批判思維(需要具備所批判對象的資料與認識)好好地去分析思考,Vaclav Smil的這本《能源神話與現實》正好是一個好好的示範 在《能源轉型:歷史,要求,前景》(2010)一書中,一個大膽而挑釁的論點描述了現代社會對化石燃料的依賴歷史以及向非化石世界過渡的前景。從本質上解析了能源轉型為何是一段漫長的歷程,以及一種新的能源是如何經過數十年才能夠在市場上占據主導或領先的地位。Vaclav Smil在《能源神話與現實》中,進一步拆穿了很多被人們普遍接受但卻是極其錯誤的觀念——這些所謂被誤解的真相包括對電動汽車快速普及或是對碳封存快速部署所抱有的過大預期,以及對生物燃料或風力發電所做貢獻的不切實際的評估。本書從科學的角度看待能源政策的爭論,基於對常見謬誤的理性分析和批判,為能源政策制定者和能源行業的各類玩家指明了一條建設性的、科學應對全球能源挑戰的道路。本書作者是比爾·蓋茨愛的一位作家,《能源神話與現實》更是受到比爾·蓋茨的專門推介。Vaclav Smil在能源的各個方面發表的文章比任何在職的科學家都多,他清楚地表明,這種轉變將不會輕易完成,並且也無法在奧巴馬政府制定的時間表內完成(事實証明如此……)現代能源系統的基本特性。然後,它詳細解釋了能源過渡的普遍模式,世界主要經濟體中能源使用變化的特殊性,以及即將發生的從化石燃料向可再生能源轉換的轉變。針對全球八家主要的能源消費者,分析了這些轉變的具體案例。作者對即將到來的能源向可再生能源轉換的性質和步伐進行了展望。 關於全球能源未來的許多誤解經常被媒體,政界人士,商業領袖,激進主義者甚至科學家所陳述,浪費時間和金錢並阻礙了漸進式能源政策的製定。能源神話與現實:將科學引入能源政策辯論最常見的謬論是揭穿事實,以建設性,科學的方式應對全球能源挑戰。世界何時將耗盡石油?是否應該大規模採用核能?乙醇和風能在未來是否可行? Vaclav Smil建議公眾警惕誇大的主張和不可能的承諾。全球能源過渡將是漫長而昂貴的,並且取決於廣泛的新基礎設施的發展。成熟的技術和傳統能源具有持久性和適應性,足以使世界看穿這一轉變。能源神話和現實為通常由毫無根據的斷言,毫無根據的主張和不加批判的思維主導的問題帶來了科學的視角。在我們為未來製定健全的能源政策之前,我們必須摒棄使我們的判斷蒙蔽並阻礙真正進展的流行神話。 我們離電動汽車的全球化普及還有多遠?世界的石油資源將在什麼時候耗盡?核能能否大範圍地被民事化採用?未來最為可能的新能源發展方向是風力?太陽能?還是乙醇?關於全球能源的未來,媒體、政客、商界領袖、活動家,甚至科學家都存在很多誤讀。而正是這些誤讀和神話浪費了時間和金錢,阻礙了先進的能源政策的發展。本書作者建議公眾警惕誇大的和不可能兌現的承諾。全球向新能源的過渡將是一個長期的、耗費大量金錢的過程,並且依賴於新基礎設施的建設。成熟技術和傳統能源將在這個過渡過程中持續存在,並將具有足夠的適應性。本書為那些通常毫無根據就下結論或不做批判性思考就斷言的人,提供了一個批判性的科學視角。未來在我們可以制定出合理的能源政策之前,我們必須拋棄盛行一時的神話,它們迷惑了我們的判斷,阻礙了我們取得真正的進步。《能源神話與現實》:將科學帶入能源政策的爭論,揭露了最常見的謬誤,指明了一條有建設性的、科學的應對全球能源挑戰的道路。
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